WINTER FORECAST

The predictions are in. Forecasts are going with a
La Niña winter which means we will probably be warmer and drier than average.  Even in a winter that averages warmer than normal and drier than normal,  the risk of fall and winter severe weather is increased. A single system with the right timing can still bring us a winter event of some kind.

A few predictors don't agree with less precip this winter such as the Elkmont persimmon tree, Old Farmers Almanac and Farmers Almanac.  Only time will tell which group is correct.  Prepare now so it doesn't matter what kind of winter we have.
 

ELKMONT PERSIMMON SEED


 
Open the seed of a persimmon and it will either have a fork, spoon, or knife.  Look at the shape of the kernel inside. Look like lots of snow for the hilltop if local lore is right. The seeds were extra hard to cut open this year...don't know what that means.

*Spoon-shaped, lots of heavy, wet snow will fall.
*Fork-shaped, you can expect powdery, light snow and a mild winter.
*Knife-shaped, expect to be "cut" by icy, cutting winds. 

ELKMONT WOOLLY WORM
*The Woolly Bear caterpillar has 13 distinct segments of either rusty brown or black. The wider the rusty brown sections (or the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. The more black there is, the more severe the winter.

There is evidently evidence of a connection but not what you would think .... the number of brown hairs has to do with the age of the caterpillar—in other words, how late it got going in the spring. The [band] does say something about a heavy winter or an early spring. The only thing is … it’s telling you about the previous year.  It was mild last year.

This winter is forecast to be much colder than last year’s, but—just like last winter—not colder than usual. In the South,  you can expect to feel cooler than normal.

 

Break out the space heaters, umbrellas, and warm socks, because the Southeast will see below normal winter temperatures with an unseasonable chill reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast, with above-average precipitation.

DRIER AND WARMER FORECASTS

 WEATHERBELL ANAYLTICS

 *slightly warmer-than-normal winter

ACCUWEATHER

* temperatures “a little above average” 

NOAA
Drought could develop in some areas of the South due to the drier conditions -- especially in areas that missed the rainfall associated with the active 2017 hurricane season.