The
models are under the impression that waters may stay cooler and that is
likely affecting the forecast over the next few months. We have done
extensive research that suggests as the ENSO regions trend toward
neutral parts of the U.S. can warm up and turn drier, especially further
south and west. The latest thinking is that late March and into April
can turn much warmer, especially for the central and southern Ag belt.
Based on this thinking, the greatest risk for dryness would fall across
the southern ag belt this spring. This would likely mean the
drought in the southern U.S. will persist and likely become more
severe.
This is the models for the next 2 weeks. The rain clouds would indeed have to stay away for awhile for us to be in drought this year.
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